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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as China escalates tensions over the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.